The New South Wales Coalition faces a tough road to re-election, with the latest Guardian Essential poll showing its primary vote falling below 40% as it defended the controversial appointment of former deputy premier John Barilaro to a New York trade role.
However, 49% of voters approve of Dominic Perrottet's performance as premier since he took over the job from Gladys Berejiklian, who resigned amid a corruption investigation last year.
The poll, conducted over five days after the release of the state budget last week, is a warning for the Coalition as it seeks to convince voters that it deserves a fourth term in power before the next state election in March.
The survey of 700 voters found 37% intend to give the Coalition their first preference vote, a figure that would result in a swing of about 4.5% against the government if it was replicated across the state on polling day.
The poll covered a week in which the government defended Barilaro's appointment to a $500,000-a-year trade commissioner job in New York.
Barilaro withdrew from the position on Thursday, amid mounting pressure and two separate inquiries into the appointment. On Friday the treasurer, Matt Kean, admitted it had been a "distraction" for the government.
"I was surprised that John got the job but again, I was told that it had gone through the proper process [and] that's what l'd expect for anyone to apply for one of these government jobs," he said.
"John made the right call. It was a distraction and we move on."
The poll also shows the party still trails significantly among female voters, a worrying sign for the government following a budget that put childcare and measures to address the treatment of women at its centre.
"It is an economic imperative that we respect, hear and empower women in the workplace because their brilliance, contribution and creativity are things that we should be backing," Kean said when handing down the budget.
Only 32% of female respondents to the Guardian Essential poll said they would give the Coalition their primary vote, compared to 42% of men.
But it also suggests that after 12 years in opposition, and a leadership change in 2021, Labor's vote has not shifted since 2019.
The 33% of respondents who indicated they would give their first preference vote to Labor is almost identical to the party's result at the last election, though it is a marked improvement on the 25.6% primary vote the party recorded at the 2011 election when the party was reduced to only 20 lower house seats on the way to losing government.
Unlike the federal system, preferences in NSW are optional, making the flow of votes harder to predict.
The Coalition still enjoys a significant advantage over Labor in terms of the approval rating of its two leaders. While 49% of respondents approved of Perrottet's performance, Labor leader Chris Minns had a net approval rating of 39% in the latest poll.
But Minns has more room to move. The premier had a net disapproval rating of 35% compared to only 22% for Minns, while 39% of voters had yet to make up their mind about the Labor leader - compared to only 16% for Perrottet.
